When we last visited this list, Democrats were riding a wave of enthusiasm with Kamala Harris being anointed the party’s new nominee.
Since then, polls have stabilized. In the 18 publicly released presidential polls of Michigan since Harris became the nominee, she’s stayed within a band of support between 51% to 46%, while Republican Donald Trump is somewhere between 49% to 46%, with limited exceptions.
The issue for House Democrats is still where Trump’s support is and where it’s not. Buoyed by Proposal 3 and a noncompetitive governor’s race in 2022, House Democrats won seats that will be more difficult this year with a Republican base anxious to vote for Trump.
Also, while Democrats have more money than Republicans, they’re spending a lot of it on Metro Detroit broadcasts, which are much more expensive and arguably harder to target. Republicans appear to be using more digital ads, texts and mail, which isn’t flashy or memorable, but it’s cheaper and easier to capture a certain demographic.
Finally, there’s more chatter in Lansing around races. Surrogates have visited the 20 or so House districts that could conceivably flip in this election. Common themes are emerging as to who is in trouble.
With this new information we’re presenting the updated list of districts most likely to flip. This list isn’t who the caucuses are spending the most money defending. It’s a list of who this publication believes is most at risk.
1. 27th District (D to R) – *3
Democrats, Rep. Jaime Churches (D-Wyandotte) and all of her friends aren’t spending or reserving a combined $5.7 Million according to AdImpact because they think the Downriver freshman is safe. There are Trump signs all over the place down here and Rylee Linting is either the hardest or second-hardest working non-incumbent the R’s have.
2. 57th District (R to D) – *2
Indian Americans make up 9.2% of the city of Troy. With Harris in line to possibly be the first person of Indian heritage to be president, you’d better believe they’re showing up. That only helps Aisha Farooqi in a race that Republicans are understandably starting to pay more attention to.
3. 83rd District (D to R) – *4
Let’s be honest. If it wasn’t Tommy Brann, we wouldn’t even be talking about this race. It’s hard to typecast the guy as an anti-abortion whack job when most voters already know him as having sold them a steak at one time or the other.
4. 57th District (D to R) – *8
We’re not sure why it’s taken Democrats so long to spend money to support Rep. Nate Shannon (D-Sterling Heights) but it looks like they’re finally in with $1.3 million for the three-term incumbent in a district where he chronically over-performs the top of the ticket. If Linting isn’t the Republicans’ hardest worker, the word is it’s Ron Robinson. Is the new spend coming too late?
5. 109th District (D to R) – *7
The Dems’ attempt to paint Karl Bohnak as a conspiracy nut could work. It’s also possible their card-game ad with three women shooting the breeze about Bohnak reminds viewers that he lost his job after 30 years as a weather forecaster because he refused to take the COVID-19 vaccine. Agree with his position or not, Yoopers may be just as likely to think Bohnak got screwed.
6. 54th House District (R to D) – *5
House Democrats are dropping $1.34 million into Shadia Martini, basically the same amount they’re investing in Shannon. In tying Rep. Donni Steele (R-Lake Orion) to abortion, they’re banking on ‘22 numbers that showed Proposal 3 passing roughly 2:1 in Bloomfield and passing in every precinct in this district but one.
7. 46th House District (R to D) – *6
This is a district the Democrats shouldn’t have lost to begin with, but Harris’ nomination is more likely to excite Dem-leaning Oakland County voters to vote, not voters in suburban Jackson County who tend to lean toward Trump. Let’s see if the pile of negatives Republicans and their operatives pour on Jackson Mayor Dan Mahoney stick. The Dems are spending nearly $2.5 million here, which tells you they’re optimistic.
8. 28th House District (R to D) – *1
Janise O’Neil Robinson and the House Democratic Fund are spending $1.5 million to make it a race. While we were bullish on this race in August, it appears things have settled down in Trumpland with Rep. Jamie THOMPSON (R-Brownstown). The Dems could still flip this one, but the focus Downriver seems more about saving Churches’ bacon than scoring a pickup.
9. 31st House District (D to R) – *10
The polling has to be bad for Rep. Miller. There’s just no other reason why $5.5 million in ad time has been spent here by the freshman House member and the Democrats. She won this district by 5 points in 2022 against the same opponent. The Governor won here by 11 points. At least Miller has a fresh issue in the radioactive waste that was turned away from her district.
10. 103rd House District (D to R) – *NR
Republicans are actually outspending the Democrats somewhere! It’s in Traverse City and Leelanau County, where Lisa Trombley apparently is doing well with signs. We thought Republicans would be scared by Rep. Betsy Coffia (D-Traverse City) having raised more money than any other incumbent this cycle. Turns out the R’s were not intimidated and are spending $500,000 in the general election to Coffia & Friends’ $300,000. We’re sure more will come.
Dropped Out:
38th House District – Republicans aren’t showing as much activity in this Southwest Michigan District as HD-103 and others.
Article courtesy MIRS News for SBAM’s Lansing Watchdog newsletter
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