A common theme this campaign cycle is the lack of yard signs or mailers in normally competitive areas of the state. Whether it’s Downriver River, Macomb County, Oakland County, Ingham County, Kent County – areas where one would expect to see some evidence that an election is around the corner – there’s noticeably little.
Absentee ballots have been out for weeks. Early voting began July 27th.
Yet, in many communities, you wouldn’t know it. Even with 35 House incumbents facing a primary, few are facing a competitive challenge. An active social media account hasn’t won many people a House seat yet, but a remarkable number of candidates are relying on exactly that.
Still, MIRS has flagged 10 seats in which the winner of the primary has a realistic chance against the incumbent.
We’ve called these Step 1 Primaries in the past because Step 2 would be winning the general election against an officeholder who doesn’t face a primary. The races we’ve flagged are listed below numerically:
27th House District – One observer described Rylee Linting as an “All-American” candidate, an enthusiastic fresh face who may be pulling away in Grosse Isle, Trenton and Wyandotte. Multiple sources have the Michigan Republican Party’s Youth Chair working these Downriver communities as hard, if not harder, as former Gibraltar City Councilmember Cody Dill in a competitive Republican primary race between two candidates in their early 20s.
Linting has the support of neighboring Rep. James DeSana (R-Carleton) while Dill has the Michigan Trump Republicans in his corner. A third candidate, Realtor Maria Mendoza Boc, has the local Farm Bureau’s support, but this doesn’t mean as much in this working-class, suburban district as it would in rural Michigan. Mendoza Boc was also slow out of the gates and isn’t expected to finish higher than Linting or Dill. Medonza Boc and Dill also hail from Gibraltar, meaning they also could be cutting into each other’s base.
38th House District – It’s Kevin Whiteford against George Lucas Part 2 in the Republican primary, except this time Troy Rolling isn’t around to pull away Berrien County support away from Lucas, a longtime realtor in the area. Lucas lost in 2022 by 189 votes to Whiteford. This time, Lucas is attempting to connect more in Whiteford’s Allegan County stomping grounds. Likewise, Whiteford is trying to make inroads in Berrien County along the lakeshore. Both have reportedly hit more than 15,000 doors and both are putting up signs. Whiteford is strategically urging people willing to put up his yard signs to put up a Trump sign as well, according to one source. Lucas has benefited from at least four mailers and the endorsement of Americans for Prosperity, the Michigan Chamber of Commerce and the Association of Builders and Contractors. Whiteford has the support of Michigan Right to Life.
Lucas and Whiteford each received support from the Michigan Manufacturers Association and Citizens for Traditional Values. Each one believes they’re the ones to beat Rep. Joey Andrews (D-St. Joseph), who will not have the League of Conservation Voters (LCV) campaigning for him as hard, given his sponsorship of the data center legislation. This race was close before, and is expected to be close again.
44th House District – Not much to see in Calhoun County and Battle Creek, as Calhoun County Commissioner Steve Frisbie is putting this one away, despite the best efforts of first-time candidate Alexander Harris. Frisbie’s experience in running campaigns is shining through here, as he gobbles up all the traditional Republican endorsements – Americans for Prosperity, Right to Life, business groups, etc. Harris’ background is running a physical fitness and conditioning business. At age 34, we may see Harris run again in a future race with more experience in what it takes to win a political race.
48th House District – Brian Ignatowski, the manager of a water filtration service, is running a more traditional campaign in this Livingston/Washtenaw County district, based on reports from the ground. He has the backing of Livingston County Sheriff Mike Murphy, congressional candidate Tom Barrett and the Lansing business groups. He’s up against Tawn Beliger, a grassroots candidate who received the blessings of former Sen. Patrick Colbeck, Utility Meter Choice for Michigan and the Michigan Health Choice Alliance. She’s an elected Northfield Township trustee, but Lansing Republicans are concerned Beliger is a little too MAGA to give Rep. Jennifer Conlin (D-Ann Arbor) a serious challenge.
55th House District – Two Democratic men in their early 30s with military experience are vying to run against Rep. Mark Tisdel (R-Rochester Hills) in August. Trevis Harrold is relatively new to Rochester, but he got into the race earlier than Alexander Hawkins and may have an edge in the sign war, according to on-the-ground reports. Harrold also has most of the organized labor support, which means something in the Democratic primary. Both of these guys are knocking on doors and trying to connect with voters, but it’s still an open question the extent to which Democrats will spend money in the General to help the winner given Tisdel’s popularity in the district.
57th House District – Initially, it looked like Aisha Farooqi would walk into the nomination, having run a fairly competitive 2022 race without any caucus resources. Then along came 28-year-old Troy Planning Commissioner Tyler Fox, who is making this Democratic primary a race. Farooqi, a Wayne County assistant attorney by trade, has a leg up on the endorsement front, but Fox has been impressive with his knowledge of how government works, being the purchasing coordinator for the city of Sterling Heights. He also recently picked up the backing of Michigan Liberation, which hasn’t endorsed many state House candidates.
Word on the ground is that both candidates are working hard but, again, it’s an open question how much, if any, the House Democrats will spend trying to knock off Rep. Tom Kuhn (R-Troy) when so many of their incumbents are facing competitive primaries. A third candidate in the primary, retired electrician Douglas Waggener, is not expected to make much of an impact.
58th House District – All signs here are that Utica City Council member Ron Robinson is going to crush fellow Republican Roger Goodrich in the race to face Rep. Nate Shannon (D-Sterling Heights) in the fall. Robinson is running a professional campaign with literature, a field team and the whole bit. By all accounts, Robinson is putting himself in a position to win back a seat that hasn’t been Republican since the Farringtons were around.
Meanwhile, Goodrich, 62, is posting videos of himself doing wheelies on his bicycle to ZZ Top and Chariots of Fire. This is pretty impressive, dude!
61st House District – On paper, this Republican primary could be competitive with Robert Wojtowicz being a sitting Chippewa Valley School Board member and everything, but he’s ruffled some feathers there and hasn’t put a ton of visible energy into a state House campaign. We’re still looking for anything about his candidacy online. His campaign Facebook page is still for the school board.
Russ Cleary, 24, who has worked in constituent relations for U.S. Rep. John James (R-Shelby Township) and a couple former state legislators, is doing doors. He’s got Americans for Prosperity mailing for him. Word on the street is that he knows what he’s doing. The winds are breaking for him in a primary that also features IT consultant John Grossenbacher.
76th House District – Forget about the primary, Real Life Church founder and senior pastor Andy Shaver is emerging as a real threat to take out House Appropriations Committee Chair Angela Witwer (D-Lansing). The Charlotte native is one of the exceptions to the setup piece in that he has big signs all over Eaton County. Local restaurateur Peter Jones has done next to nothing to get his name out and will struggle to get 25 percent at the rate this landslide is shaping up. Witwer got a free pass last year with a do-nothing opponent. This one feels a lot like that tough race against now-Rep. Gina Johnsen (R-Lake Odessa) in 2020, especially if Kamala Harris can’t turn the numbers around for the Democrats at the top of the ticket.
103rd House District – Katie Kniss, the MAGA-style Republican who nearly unseated Rep. John Roth (R-Interlochen) in the 2022 primary, got a head start this campaign cycle on the doors and yard signs, but Lockheed Martin contractor Lisa Trombley has come on strong in recent weeks. Trombley has been bolstered by a $20,000 ad campaign from the Consumer Energy-connected PAC, Citizens Energizing Michigan Economy, and more internet ads from the Michigan Freedom Network and the Great Lakes Education Project. Republicans in Lansing see Trombley as their best bet to give Rep. Betsy Coffia (D-Traverse City) a run for her money. They fear Kniss may be a little too right to appeal to Traverse City’s more moderate Republican voters.
Article courtesy MIRS News for SBAM’s Lansing Watchdog newsletter
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