Vice President Kamala Harris maintains a slight lead in Michigan over former President Donald Trump in the first statewide poll following Tuesday night’s debate. But the race remains well within the margin of error, according to a poll conducted by Mitchell Research and Communications commissioned by MIRS.
While a 56 percent majority of 580 likely voters said they thought Harris won the debate (29 percent said Trump did), Harris maintains a 47 percent to 46 percent lead over Trump in a question featuring the entire field. The head to head is tied 48 percent to 48 percent.
The survey found the debate changed few people’s minds. Overall, 90 percent said the debate did not change their minds on who they plan to vote for, and an extra 3 percent said they plan to vote for Harris now. An extra 5 percent claim they’re voting for Trump now.
“People are so deeply entrenched on both sides. Nothing is happening except at the margins,” Mitchell said.
While Trump didn’t do as well as Harris on Tuesday night, Mitchell said Trump didn’t “lose” the debate like President Joe Biden lost the debate earlier this summer.
“He didn’t (do) so badly that his partisans are going to switch sides…this remains the closest race in modern polling. Nobody has been up more than 5 percent. It’s right on the margin every time. It’s unbelievable. And it’ll stay that way all the way to the end despite all the money that is being spent on this race.”
The margin of error is +/- 4.06 percent at the 95 percent level of confidence.
Other highlights from the poll include:
– A 43 percent plurality support Israel in the war with Hamas. Eight percent support Palestinians, 33 percent support neither and 17 percent are not sure.
– A 36 percent plurality say the economy is their top issue, followed by 26 percent who said “threats to the Democracy,” 18 percent who said border/immigration, 9 percent said abortion, 4 percent healthcare, 3 percent other, 2 percent climate, 2 percent foreign affairs, 1 percent not sure and 0 percent crime.
– A 49 percent plurality said they trust Harris to “most faithfully” follow and uphold U.S. law and the Constitution. Another 47 percent said they believe Trump is more likely to uphold U.S. law.
– A 57 percent majority said they watched the entire debate. Only 7 percent of voters said they didn’t watch any of it.
– A 29 percent plurality said the United States should be sending military aid to both Ukraine and Israel. Another 24 percent said the U.S. should not be sending money to either. Sixteen percent said only Ukraine should be getting U.S. aid, 13 percent said only Israel should be receiving aid and 18 percent were not sure.
– Harris’s favorable rating is 48 percent favorable/50 percent unfavorable. Trump’s is 45 percent favorable, 53 percent unfavorable.
Article courtesy MIRS News for SBAM’s Lansing Watchdog newsletter
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