Dems Doing Well In Post-Trump Special Elections, What Does It Mean For SD-35?

Democrats in special elections this year are performing stronger than past Vice President Kamala Harris did in November.

If the Governor called a special election in Michigan’s 35th Senate district, would a Democrat benefit from the latest wave of success?

The Downballot – the elections-focused publication and podcast program – reported that in 16 special elections for Congress and state legislatures, Democrats have won 11 of them.

They took place in Florida, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Minnesota, Connecticut, Maine, Delaware and Virginia, from Jan. 7 through April 1.

In comparison to how Harris did in those locations during the 2024 elections, Democrats’ support this year grew by 11.4 points on average. They also grew by 7.6 percent on average in comparison to how President Joe Biden did against now-President Donald Trump in 2020.

Meanwhile, in Michigan, Republicans have criticized Gov. Gretchen Whitmer for not calling a special election in the 35th Senate district, which was vacated by now-U.S. Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) following the 2024 elections.

McDonald Rivet won in the 8th U.S. House district by 28,173 votes against Republican Paul Junge, a three-time Congressional candidate.

If Democrats in a special election were unable to maintain the 35th Senate seat, Michigan’s Senate chamber would have a 19-19 partisan split, although Democratic Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist II is able to cast tie-breaking votes.

Last month, Whitmer became the first governor in at least three decades – across four different administrations – to wait longer than 75 days to call a special election.

Republicans have tried pressuring Whitmer, creating red milk cartons reading “Missing…District 35 State Senator. Last Seen: January 2025,” as well as yellow buttons displaying “Free The 35th.”

In the three counties the district covers, Trump won in Midland County last year with 56.7 percent of the vote, 50.87 percent (3,397 votes) in Saginaw County and by 9,025 votes in Bay County.

On the Congressional level, McDonald Rivet lost Bay County, which was her home county, by 1,443 votes to Junge. She won in Saginaw County by 50.9 percent to Junge’s 44.98 percent, and also lost in Midland County by 2,517 votes despite representing those neighborhoods in the Legislature.

Polling by Marketing Resource Group (MRG) LLC. – conducted from March 24-28 with 602 phone interviewees – found that statewide, Whitmer has a 57 percent approval rating, her highest in five years. On the other hand, Trump’s was at 42 percent.

“There is an art and a science to politics,” MRG owner Jenell Leonard told MIRS, describing how Whitmer has “shown a conciliatory tone towards President Trump, and also now that House Republicans have taken a majority in the Michigan Legislature … she has to work across the aisle.”

Leonard noted how Whitmer had talked about inviting Trump to see the aftermath of ice storms in northeastern Michigan, showing a side of her unlike the more “polarizing relationship” between the two during their first terms.

“It does seem that the Governor is coming to the table and at least showing that conciliatory tone, so that could also be attributed to these approval numbers we see today,” Leonard said.

As for Democrats’ latest success in special elections nationally, Leonard described Democrats as lacking a message that resonates with voters in 2024.

“They had the money, they had the volunteers, the polling seemingly was going in (their) direction, but they didn’t connect with the voters,” Leonard said. “They weren’t paying attention to the fact that they were hurting, (that) their top issues were still jobs and the economy, the inflation, the cost of living. … At the end of the day, the response was, ‘We wouldn’t do anything different than Joe Biden.’ Well that doesn’t connect.”

As for the 35th Senate district, Leonard, whose interview is featured in the latest episode of the MIRS Monday Podcast, said it honestly will depend on the quality of candidate.

“Especially in that region, it’s just a fascinating area, because Trump … does resonate well with the blue-collar voter, the union voter. … That could have some sway based off of what we saw in 2024,” Leonard said. “But it does depend on the candidate that gets up there on both sides of the aisle, to see who’s actually going to resonate.”

She used McDonald Rivet as an example of someone who resonated, outperforming her Republican opponent.

Article courtesy MIRS News for SBAM’s Lansing Watchdog newsletter

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