Barrett Wins MI-07, McDonald Rivet Takes MI-08; Other Congressional News

Charlotte Republican Tom Barrett has defeated Curtis Hertel, an East Lansing Democrat, in mid-Michigan’s 7th Congressional district, and Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) downed three-time Congressional candidate Paul Junge in the 8th Congressional district Tuesday night, shifting the majority of Michigan’s Congressional delegation to the Republicans with a 7-6 lead.

Hertel and Barrett served in the state Senate together during the 2019-20 and 2021-22 legislative terms, where they often butted heads on COVID-19 health mandates and vaccine instructions.

Barrett’s win flips the district that contains Livingston, Ingham, Eaton, Clinton, Shiawassee and parts of Oakland counties and had been blue since U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Holly) defeated former U.S. Rep. Mike Bishop in 2018.

“Thank you, Michigan! It is my honor to be your next Congressman from the 7th District! I’m ready to continue fighting for you and make you proud,” Barrett said in a statement on X.

Barrett’s spokesperson Jason Roe said he won by “a much wider margin than anticipated.” He also said Barrett had a more consistent ground game than his opponent.

He said despite Hertel being a “very formidable fundraiser,” Barrett raised almost twice the amount as the last time Barrett ran in 2022 at $5 million.

“The margins are showing that even with all the spending that Hertel had on his side, Tom’s message, I think, broke through more,” Roe said.

Roe said Barrett focused his campaign platform on cost of living and inflation, which he said, “is an issue that affects every voter,” and Hertel “just seemed like he wanted to talk about abortion as an answer to every question.”

Barrett targeted Hertel for promoting corporate incentives as a lawmaker and as the governor’s legislative affairs director in 2023, which were funded by tax revenue and involved non-disclosure agreements.

He argued that Hertel created a national security risk through supporting incentives to Gotion Inc., the battery parts manufacturer with a Chinese parent company developing outside the 7th district in the Big Rapids area.

Hertel attempted to introduce himself to voters as “just a regular guy.” However, people in Michigan’s government circles recognize him as a serious budget and policy negotiator, whose wife is the head of the state’s health department and whose father was co-speaker of the state House in 1993-94.

Hertel released a statement conceding the election and wishing Barrett well as he “begins this next chapter of service.”

“I got into this race because I believe that we can make meaningful progress by seeking compromise, that our freedoms are worth fighting for, that we can bring down costs by cutting taxes for working families and reducing drug prices, that we can bring manufacturing jobs back home, and that we can strengthen our democracy,” Hertel said in the statement.

Democrats and Republicans both invested more in the 7th Congressional race out of the three battleground districts. Republicans poured $17 million into ad buys supporting Barrett, based on AdImpact, and Democrats infused more than $21.4 million into pro-Hertel ads. Both candidates ran unopposed in their primaries, permitting them to introduce themselves as general election candidates a lot earlier than those in other Congressional races.

Barrett lost by 20,185 votes in 2022 to Slotkin, who had a reputation of being a moderate Democrat with support from Republican women. The district also contains a Democratic stronghold in East Lansing, the home of Michigan State University, which came out big for Hertel.

8th Congressional District Goes for McDonald Rivet

State Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) defeated three-time Congressional candidate Paul Junge in the 8th Congressional district, featuring Genesee, Bay, Saginaw and Midland counties.

McDonald Rivet – a first-term state senator – was promoted as a moderate Democrat, supporting tax reform and backed by Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson and Prosecutor David Leyton. Her persona was centered on local connections, as she spent about three years as a Bay City commissioner and more than four years as president of Greater Midland Inc., a regional recreation and childcare provider.

Additionally, she had the endorsement of retiring U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Flint) who’s represented the Genesee County area since 2013. His uncle, Dale Kildee, had represented the community since 1977 before that.

Before the Kildee family came in, former Democratic U.S. Rep. Donald Riegle Jr. had represented the Flint area since 1967. He initially ran as a Republican, but changed his political stripes during the Watergate scandal.

“I am honored by the trust of our neighbors to represent mid-Michigan in the US House. We won this race with a broad and energized coalition, and I am grateful to the tens of thousands of people who voted, volunteered, and donated. We showed that even amidst negativity and attack ads, we can come together as a community with a positive vision for our region,” McDonald Rivet said in a statement after MIRS called the race.

One of Junge’s obstacles was overcoming the “carpetbagger” reputation, as McDonald Rivet described him as a Californian with a trust fund. He was a Lansing area news anchor in the early 2000s, was a U.S. deputy district attorney in California’s Ventura County in the mid-1990s and spent less than two years doing federal government work in Washington, D.C.

Junge spent $5.79 million out of his own candidate account on ad buys ahead of Monday afternoon, while McDonald Rivet’s own account accounted for $5.18 million in ad buys.

Political observers considered the 7th, 8th and 10th Congressional districts to be Michigan’s most competitive battlegrounds this cycle.

Democrats in these districts targeted Republicans on the abortion issue. Additionally, they attempted to tie their opponents to former President Donald Trump and his MAGA-style populism, trying to lure Trump’s right-leaning critics and Michigan’s moderate ticket-splitters.

They followed Vice-President Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket, attempting to link Republican U.S. House candidates to “Project 2025,” the Heritage Foundation proposal to reduce bureaucracy, further regulate immigration and to restrict access to the abortion pill mifepristone.

Meanwhile, Republicans promoted themselves as the best candidates for manufacturing and lowering costs. They advocated for fewer business regulations and an “all-of-the-above” energy stance welcoming domestic oil production.

They also criticized the Biden administration and Democrats for being too demanding in their push for electric vehicles (EVs).

Both U.S. Rep. John James (R-Shelby Township) and Barrett highlighted their U.S. Army backgrounds, with their campaigns showing off attack helicopter illustrations. James served as an aviation officer and Barrett is a retired chief warrant officer.

Across the three districts, total Republican ad spending – according to AdImpact, the media strategies database – reached $42.48 million by Monday afternoon. Meanwhile, total Democratic ad spending surpassed $46.5 million for the 2024 election cycle.

In similar races during the last presidential election cycle of 2020, AdImpact records Republicans spending a total of $652,335, on average, for races in either the Lansing and Livingston County communities, southern Macomb County and the greater Flint area.

On the left, average spending to protect a Democrat in these locations was more than $2.69 million.

For this election cycle, Republican and Democrats’ total spending average has grown to more than $14.84 million per one of the three races, as of Monday.

James Beats Marlinga in MI-10 Rematch

U.S. Rep. John James (R-Shelby Township) secured a second term in the U.S. House against two-time challenger Carl Marlinga, a former Macomb County prosecutor and judge.

“They broke it, and we’re going to fix it. It’s time to get to work. We will fix a broken economy to where all Americans can prosper again. We will fix a broken education system where students can get the schooling that works for them. And we will fix our communities by improving infrastructure and supporting our law enforcement and first responders as they keep our communities safe,” James said in a statement released following his win.

“I am guided by the principles of Service before Self, and People over Politics. From when I was seventeen and chose to go to West Point, I have dedicated my life to service. This is who I’ve always been, and I am so honored to continue serving my community for another two years. Experience, results, and values matter, and I’ll always apply my experiences—from the battlefield to the boardroom—to delivering results for our community and our values. And with conservative representation in Congress, the Senate, and the White House—the best is yet to come. Thank you.”

The 10th Congressional district covers Macomb County communities like Center Line, Warren, St. Clair Shores and Sterling Heights, as well as Rochester and Rochester Hills. Political pundits have described the district’s Macomb County neighborhoods as home to the “Reagan Democrats,” referring to Democractic voters who backed moderate Republicans in the 1980s, and “Blue Dog Republicans.”

In the past, the area’s auto industry and trade workers have separated themselves from labor unions’ Democratic voting traditions, choosing to back former President Donald Trump.

In the aftermath of Roe v. Wade being overturned, Marlinga lost to James by 1,600 votes in 2022, an unexpectedly tight margin for many. Multiple Macomb County Democrats argued there should have been greater investment and better coordination backing Marlinga.

Between the 2022 and 2024 cycles, total Democratic spending in the 10th district grew from $233,700 to $12.5 million, as Washington, D.C. Democrats spent more than $7.6 million on the race through the House Majority Political Action Committee (PAC).

Marlinga focused on his decades of public service in Macomb County, from serving five terms as the county’s prosecutor to spending nine years as a county judge. He also made himself particularly visible at union events.

Meanwhile, the Republicans’ Congressional Leadership Fund called Marlinga a “pedophile protector,” with an ad buy and website talking about Marlinga representing a man convicted for sexually abusing the 7-year-old granddaughter of the man’s girlfriend.

Scholten Defends West Michigan Seat

U.S. Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids)  will secure a second-term in Congress, defeating Grand Rapids lawyer Paul Hudson in West Michigan’s 3rd Congressional district.

The district, covering Ottawa County communities like Allendale, Grand Haven and Lamont, as well as the greater Grand Rapids area in Kent County, is considered a competitive swing district.

In 2022, Hudson lost as Republicans’ Michigan Supreme Court nominee amid the conservative grassroots takeover of the state’s Republican Party. But this election cycle, Hudson attempted to run a Gerald Ford-style campaign, referencing the pre-MAGA 1970s president. However, his effort to persuade what he called West Michigan’s “very practical” voters was underfunded.

For example, ad spending in the district from Republicans’ national Congressional Leadership Fund has fallen from $2.39 million total in 2022 to no money at all this cycle, according to AdImpact.

Hudson has spent $290,364 from his candidate account on media buys, while Scholten spent more than $2.98 million from hers.

House Republicans and Democrats went nearly dollar for dollar in three of Michigan’s 13 Congressional districts, as MIRS keeps these and three others, at least initially, on the radar going into Election Night.

Democrats in the competitive districts targeted Republicans on the abortion issue. Additionally, they attempted to tie their opponents to former President Donald Trump and his MAGA-style populism, trying to lure Trump’s right-leaning critics and Michigan’s moderate ticket-splitters.

They followed Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket, attempting to link Republican U.S. House candidates to “Project 2025,” the Heritage Foundation proposal to reduce bureaucracy, further regulate immigration and to restrict access to the abortion pill mifepristone.

Meanwhile, Republicans promoted themselves as the best candidates for manufacturing and lowering costs. They advocated for fewer business regulations and an “all-of-the-above” energy stance welcoming domestic oil production.

They also criticized the Biden administration and Democrats for being too demanding in their push for electric vehicles (EVs).

Both James and Barrett highlighted their U.S. Army backgrounds, with their campaigns showing off attack helicopter illustrations. James served as an aviation officer and Barrett is a retired chief warrant officer.

Across the three districts, total Republican ad spending – according to AdImpact, the media strategies database – reached $42.48 million by Monday afternoon. Meanwhile, total Democratic ad spending surpassed $46.5 million for the 2024 election cycle. Hertel & company had a slight lead on Barrett’s efforts, $21.5 million to $17.1 million. Junge outspent McDonald Rivet $14 million to $12.8 million. And Marlinga marginally outspent James $12.7 million to $11.5 million.

In similar races during the last presidential election cycle of 2020, AdImpact records Republicans spending a total of $652,335, on average, for races in either the Lansing and Livingston County communities, southern Macomb County and the greater Flint area.

On the left, average spending to protect a Democrat in these locations was more than $2.69 million.

For this election cycle, Republican and Democrats’ total spending average has grown to more than $14.84 million per one of the three races, as of Monday.

Other Congressional News

– U.S. Rep. Jack Bergman (R-Watersmeet) has defeated Callie Barr, a Gaylord Democrat for his fifth term in Congress. After Michigan lost a Congressional seat in 2021, this district became more unattainable for Democrats as the southern border of the district absorbed Missaukee and Arenac Counties.

– U.S. Rep. John Moolenaar (R-Caledonia) defeated Gratiot County Democrat Michael Lynch in Michigan’s 2nd Congressional district, winning a sixth term in the U.S. House. The large district covers part of northern West Michigan and central Michigan, ranging from Ludington and Manistee to Big Rapids and Mount Pleasant.

“In Congress, I’m going to continue to work to make sure we secure our Southern border, to cut taxes and reduce spending. I also want to make sure that we win our strategic competition with the Chinese Communist Party,” Moolenaar said in a video statement on X.

– U.S. Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Zeeland) defeated Jessica Swartz, Western Michigan University’s lawyer, in the 4th Congressional district, covering Battle Creek, Kalamazoo and all of Van Buren and Allegan counties.

– U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg (R-Tipton) defeated Libbi Urban, the Democratic steelworker, in the 5th Congressional district, bordering Indiana and Ohio.

“It’s an honor to represent southern Michigan in Congress, and I’m humbled to have earned another term. Thank you to all the grassroots supporters who continue to work tirelessly to build a stronger America. I’m excited to get back to work as we forge a brighter future,” Walberg said in a statement on X.

– U.S. Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Dearborn) defeated Republican challenger Heather Smiley, a recent Ford Motor Co. retiree, in the 6th Congressional district, covering Wayne County’s Downriver communities and Washtenaw County. Dingell has been in the U.S. House since January 2015. Dingell has served in the U.S. House since 1933.

– U.S. Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Romeo) secured a third term in Congress, defeating Clint St. Mosley, a Macomb County State Farm agent, in the 9th Congressional district. The district covers northern Macomb County and Michigan’s Thumb region.

“Thank you MI-09 for a resounding victory! It’s an honor to continue to serve you. Also, shoutout to TeamMcClain. I could not have done this without you,” McClain said in a statement on X.

– U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) wins in Oakland County’s 11th Congressional district, covering Royal Oak, Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills and Pontiac. She defeated Republican challenger Nick Somberg, a Bingham Farms criminal defense attorney.

– U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Detroit) defeated James Hooper, a Wayne County grassroots conservative in the 12th Congressional district, covering Dearborn and Dearborn Heights, as well as Livonia, Southfield and Beverly Hills. After being censured last November for her remarks surrounding Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel, Tlaib – the lone Palestinian-American in Congress – ran unopposed in her primary.

– U.S. Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) defeated Republican challenger Martell Bivings in Wayne County’s 13th Congressional district, covering cities like Romulus, Taylor, Wyandotte, Detroit and the Grosse Pointe communities. Thanedar secures a second term despite some fellow Democrats claiming he used his office for self-promotion instead of constituent services.

Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan endorsed Thanedar’s challenger, Mary Waters, a Detroit city council member at-large, but Thanedar defeated her 54.9 percent to 33.8 percent in August.