Republican Representative-Elects Steve Frisbie, Ron Robinson, Rylee Linting and Karl Bohnak have unseated four House Democrats in key competitive seats, giving Republicans at least 58 seats in the next legislative session.
Democrats failed to knock off any House Republicans.
Rep. Jaime Churches (D-Wyandotte), a first-term Democrat, was unable to defend her seat against Linting, 22, the Michigan Republican Party’s Youth Vice Chair in the competitive Downriver area. Linting won 52 to 48 percent, despite Churches being among the Democrats’ hardest campaigners.
Churches raised $1.675 million as of Oct. 20, the fundraising in the 27th House district is easily the most amount raised for a state House campaign in state history. Churches struggled to overcome Trump’s popularity Downriver and Linting’s own aggressive door knocking and likable personality.
Republicans finally claimed the last bastion of Democratic dominance in the Upper Peninsula with Rep. Jenn Hill (D-Marquette) being defeated by former weatherman Karl Bohnak for the 109th House district seat, 48 percent to Bohnak’s 51 percent.
Concerns over Hill’s re-electability in the district grew after her yea votes that gave the approval permissions for solar siting to the state rather than local government, a political battle she fought through the primary and general election.
Democrats claimed in their paid media that Bohnak held extreme positions on abortion and COVID restriction, but Bohnak’s name ID after being on the air for decades was off the charts, making him much more impervious to political attacks.
Robinson, a U.S. Marine Corps Veteran, has unseated Rep. Nate Shannon (D-Sterling Heights) in the 58th House district. Shannon was unable to win a fourth term, which he did previously by drawing in support from Trump voters against possibly one of the Republicans’ most heralded candidates. Robinson is a former broadcast journalism professional who Democrats hit in paid media for an old embezzlement charge, when Shannon had something in his past as well.
Republicans countered by noting that Shannon voted with his Democratic caucus in nearly every vote in 2023 and 2024. They claimed he raised the income tax and approved a budget that cut money to schools’ mental health counselors. In 2020, Shannon won his seat with Trump on the ballot by five percentage points, 52.86% to 47.14%.
13th: Rep. Mai Xiong (D-Warren) 51.2% v. Ron Singer 48.8%.
Rumors of a competitive primary between Xiong and former Rep. Richard Steenland were squashed in August when she earned the 13th House district seat for the second time this year due to a special election. Xiong carried the same energy into the general election, when she defended her seat by beating late-charging Singer, who retired years ago from the manufacturing sector and lost to former Rep. Lori Stone in this district in 2022. Xiong, who ran for Warren city clerk in 2023, has run three campaigns within a year’s timeframe.
22nd: Rep. Matt Koleszar (D-Plymouth) and Adam Stathakis
The House Education Committee Chair disposed of possibly his most aggressive challenger since he first won his seat in 2018. Stathakis, the director of his family-owned cleaning and maintenance company, put in $100,000 of his own money and launched an aggressive door-knocking campaign in a district Koleszar won with 54.25% of the vote in 2022.
28th: Rep. Jamie Thompson (R-Brownstown) 66.24% v. Janise O’Neal Robinson 33.76%
Thompson, the freshman Republican, survived an aggressive challenge from the highly-touted Robinson, a special education teacher who House Democrats regarded very highly early in the campaign. Reports from the spring had Thompson’s door-to-door operation being slow in getting off the ground, which gave Democrats hope for the 28th House district. But the race fell off the radar after Thompson reconnected with the Trump voters in Brownstown, Woodhaven and other pieces of Downriver.
29th: Rep. James Desana (R-Carleton) 65.39% v. Kyle Wright 34.61%
Hindsight is 20/20 when it comes to comparing how much money should’ve been invested, but this loss adds another bruise to the injuries House Democrats took Tuesday night. Under different circumstances, Democrats might have put more money into Wright, a Taylor school board member and aggressive campaigner, but the Trump numbers were too good to justify the expenditure against DeSana, a true MAGA/Freedom Caucus candidate who defeated his opponent and will be returning to Lansing. The 29th House district is the seat former Rep. Alex Garza lost in 2022, and until Democrats figure out a way to reconnect with voters in Monroe County, they’ll be facing even more losses here.
38th: Rep. Joey Andrews (D-St. Joseph) 53.14% v. Kevin Whiteford 46.86%
The sequel to the Andrews-Whiteford race of 2022 also went to the Democrat after Republicans opted against investing heavily in the Southeast Michigan seat. Whiteford, the husband of former Rep. Mary Whiteford and the owner of his own Wealth Management firm, dropped $272,022 of his own money into the campaign, but Andrews had spent nearly twice as much as the Republican by Oct. 20.
42nd: Rep. Matt Hall (R-Richland Township) 57.25% v. Austin Marsman 42.75%
In the 42nd House district, Democrats held out Marsman, youth vice chair of the Michigan Democrats as a possible dark horse, but Hall was too well-funded for the Dems to take a flyer on a 54.5 percent GOP district when push came to shove. Scaring Hall to spend caucus resources on his own race naturally had allure and Marsman did raise more than $100,000, an impressive total for the 24-year-old candidate, but Hall’s $378,000 war chest snuffed out any serious challenge.
44th Steve Frisbie 51.86% v. Rep. Jim Haadsma (D-Battle Creek) 48.14%
The House Labor Committee chair lost his reelection bid for a fourth House term to Steve Frisbie, a Calhoun County commissioner for more than 10 years. Although Battle Creek historically loves its incumbents, Democratic spending in the district may have come a bit too late. Republicans were high on Frisbie from the outset.
Democrats tried to claim in commercials that Frisbie was fleecing taxpayers as a public employee, but the challenger chased away those insinuations by quickly cutting an ad with him in his paramedic uniform. Instead, Republicans criticized Haadsma for trying to play peacemaker after a union official touched a woman inappropriately.
46th: Rep. Kathy Schmaltz (R-Jackson) 52.07% v. Daniel Mahoney 47.93%
The former TV news personality captured a second term in the 46th House district despite a highly-funded challenge from the two-term Jackson Mayor. Republicans hammered Mahoney on paid media over a non-profit he didn’t file a tax return for and for “lying to police about possession of illegal drugs.” In the news media, Mahoney also was asked to respond to rap lyrics that appear in an old song that used a gay slur.
Democrats went to the abortion well on Schmaltz, claiming she supported an abortion ban that could put women in jail, which was a stretch based on the proposal in question.
48th: Rep. Jennifer Conlin (D-Ann Arbor) 51.49% v. Brian Ignatowski 47.09%
Another below-the-radar race that neither caucus invested in, but on paper could be a competitive race under the right circumstances. The freshman member helped put this one out of reach by raising nearly $500,000 and spending nearly all of it by Oct. 29. Ignatowski, the general manager of American H2O, stayed aggressive on the doors, according to one report, and received several endorsements from business groups.
49th: Rep. Ann Bollin (R-Brighton) 58.87% v. Andy Wood 41.13%
Bollin defeated her Democratic challenger in the 49th House district. Numbers from the primary showed that Wood, an overlooked, underfunded DoorDash driver, was drawing nearly as well as the former House Elections and Ethics Committee chair. The caucus apparently briefly looked into putting money into this Livingston/Oakland county seat, but with Wood raising less than $10,000, it was decided Bollin could take care of business in a 56.3% percent Republican district. That proved to be the case.
54th: Rep. Donni Steele (R-Lake Orion) 52.42% v. Shadia Martini 47.48% (100% reported)
Steele, the No. 1 target near the end of the campaign for House Democrats, withstood a late charge from Martini, a three-time candidate and Syrian immigrant who owns her own real estate brokerage, construction company and medical spa. An aggressive door knocker and campaigner, Steele was recorded telling someone at a Republican event that she would support Trump if he were reelected and chose to pardon those criminally charged for actions from Jan. 6.
It’s another seat that Hall and the HRCC have called.
55th: Rep. Mark Tisdel (R-Rochester Hills) 53.70% v. Democrat Trevis Herrold 46.21% (100% reported)
Tisdel won a third term against the Democratic newcomer. Democrats avoided dropping a lot of resources into this Rochester seat due to Tisdel’s long connection to the district until polling showed their best chance for a pickup was in Oakland County seats like this one. Herrold, who had experience in military intelligence, moved into the district about a year ago to run for the seat, but was able to bring resources to the race. The $1.31 million he raised is more than any other non-incumbent in a state House race, ever.
Tisdel was hit on the TV airways for voting against gun control laws and expanding the statute of limitations on child rapists, but Republicans got a spot up in the campaign’s closing week that had the two-term Republican opposing “open borders” and supporting “stronger schools and safer neighborhoods.”
57th: Rep. Tom Kuhn (R-Troy) v. Aisha Farooqi
Sterling Heights’ strong support for Trump prevented Farooqi, the two-time Democratic candidate, from scoring an upset despite local reports having her significantly outworking Kuhn at the doors. Farooqi lost in 2022 by five points and won the Troy portion of the district, but locals consider the 57th to be a Sterling Heights district and without at least coming close to breaking even in Macomb County, Farooqi’s support in Troy wasn’t enough.
Religious politics may also have played a role in the race, according to observers. Christian Chaldeans in Sterling Heights are traditionally more socially conservative and the Hindus of Indian heritage tend not to be particularly motivated to support Muslim candidates.
61st: Rep. Denise Mentzer (D-Mount Clemens) 50.4% and Robert Wojtowicz 49%
The relatable Macomb County freshman won a second term after Republicans’ recruitment efforts fell short for a second straight year in this competitive seat. Wojtowicz, a locally divisive school board member, managed less than $25,000 raised by Oct. 20 while Mentzer was one of five House Democrats to rake in more than $1 million. Trump’s popularity in Macomb drove Democrats to spend here and House R’s gratuitously dedicated some resources toward Wojtowicz’s effort, such that it was.
68th: Rep. David Martin (R-Davison) 54.49% v. Matt Schlinker 45.51%
Martin easily won a third term in the 68th House district in a race the Democrats backed away from after former Rep. Tim Sneller died in July. Schlinker put together a respectable campaign, raising $57,000 by Oct. 20, but Sneller’s decades of experience in the Burton part of this district made this one competitive for Democrats in this pro-Trump district. Meanwhile, Martin connects at the doors as well as about any candidate you’ll find.
76th: Rep. Angela Witwer (D-Lansing) 52.08% v. Andy Shaver 47.92%
Witwer defeated Shaver in the 76th House district. Shaver put forth a spirited challenge against the House Appropriations Committee chair, but the pastor – with the assistance of Rep. Gina Johnsen (R-Lake Odessa) – may have been too conservative for this politically competitive district. Witwer came to the race with whatever she needed to share her message of being a bipartisan, problem-solving workhorse, which helped her win a fourth term.
81st: Stephen Wooden (D) 55.46% v. Jordan Youngquist (R) 44.54%
Kent County Commissioner Stephen Wooden defeated Jordan Youngquist, a Grand Rapids Republican for the 81st House district seat. Another Grand Rapids district where Republicans might have invested if Trump wasn’t on the top of the ticket, but alas. Wooden has been through this before. Youngquist made his first run for office and it showed, having raised less than $20,000, which wasn’t going to get the job done in a politically competitive seat.
83rd: Rep. John Fitzgerald (D-Wyoming) 53.12% v. Tommy Brann 46.88%
Fitzgerald won a second term in the 83rd House district against the West Michigan restaurateur and former Rep. Tommy Brann who sought his 4th House term. Brann’s namesake steakhouse chain certainly bolstered his name recognition and familiarity in the community, and local reports had him knocking a lot of doors. Fitzgerald, the great-grandson of Michigan’s 34th and 36th Gov. Frank Fitzgerald, ran with a tailwind due to Trump’s unpopularity in Wyoming, and his attack ads calling Brann “weird” and “dangerous” proved to be effective in the end.
84th: Rep. Carol Glanville (D-Grand Rapids) 55.05% v. John Wetzel 44.95%
A tough seat for Republicans to target with Grand Rapids making up 50% of this district and Trump being generally repulsive to that population. Wetzel, the owner of a customer service contractor, dropped more than $100,000 of his own money into the race, which put it on Democrats’ radar and caused them to spend $157,000 here.
86th: Rep. Nancy DeBoer (R-Holland) 56.12% v. Abby Klomparens 43.88%
DeBoer defended her seat against her Democratic challenger, resulting in 54 percent to 45 percent. The freshman member maintained her seat amid a more favorable atmosphere than usual for Democrats in West Michigan. Whitmer campaigned in Holland late in October to highlight a race hallmarked by the religious, principled conservative outlook that Holland has on the world that Trump doesn’t always fit into, possibly made even worse by the Ottawa Impact organization that has made a mockery of the county government.
88th: Rep. Greg VanWoerkom (R-Norton Shores) 56.77% v. Tim Meyer 43.23%
VanWoerkem earned a fourth term in a closer-than-expected race in the 88th House district against Meyer, a bicycle store owner who gained significant traction in Grand Haven and some of the more densely populated areas of the district, but rural Ottawa County is still too red for a House Democratic candidate to sneak out a win, 57 percent to Meyer’s 42 percent.
92nd: Rep. Jerry Neyer (R-Shepherd) 57.52% v. Timothy Odykirk 42.48%
Neyer successfully defended his seat in the 92nd House district. Whitmer won this seat in 2022, but she’s not on the ballot this year and that made this seat difficult for Odykirk, an official within Central Michigan University’s charter school office, to get much traction.
96th: Rep. Timothy Beson (R-Bay City) 60.34% v. Rudy Howard Jr. 39.66%
Beson won a third term, this time against Howard in a district Democrats initially took a look at, but opted not to seriously challenge in Bay County’s 96th House district, which seems to get more and more Republican with each cycle.
103rd: Rep. Betsy Coffia (D-Traverse City) 52.78% v. Lisa Trombley 47.22%
In one of the most financially competitive state House races this cycle, Coffia won re-election against one of the House Republicans’ best recruits in Trombley, a personally likable retired government contractor. Coffia was well-known in the district, having served on the Grand Traverse County Commission and running for the state House in the 103rd House district seat when this Northern Michigan district wasn’t as favorable to Democrats. Trombley, after moving back to Michigan after more than 30 years in the Washington D.C. area, was a precinct delegate and chair of the county’s Republican Party.
House Democrats announced Tuesday they ran a $37.2 million program in their effort to keep the majority for a second year, more than double the $15.9 million program they ran to win the majority in 2022 and what they believe to be the country’s largest legislative caucus program.
According to a House Democratic Fund (HDF) memo released , Dems spent $23.6 million on TV ads on broadcast and cable, serving 66,500 gross rating points behind ads in the Detroit, Lansing, Grand Rapids, South Bend, Traverse City and Marquette media markets. Another $2.4 million was spent on digital ads, delivering more than 64 million impressions. Another $4 million was spent in direct mail across 22 districts.
By comparison, MIRS was able to track through AdImpact $6,773,419 in paid media spending by the Republican candidates in the 18 districts the HDF flagged in its memo, roughly one-third of what Democrats spent. In only one of those 18 districts (HD-103) was the Republican candidate spending slightly more than the Democrat. The spending on HD-109 was also close, but with an edge to Rep. Jenn Hill (D-Marquette). Otherwise, the Democrats spent many times more than the Republicans on ads in targeted districts.
Eleven Democratic candidates had at least $1 million spent on their paid communications efforts and another three more had around $900,000 spent on their efforts. In all, House Democrats dedicated at least something to 21 candidates. Another five were on the radar. In all, 43 non-targeted members gave at least $4,500 to help its colleagues in competitive seats. Speaker Joe Tate (D-Detroit) led the way with $2.42 million in contributions.
The 2023-24 campaign marked the first time individual candidates raised beyond $1 million, allowing House Democrats to go on network TV to advance their message. In response, Republicans employed a more targeted approach of using the internet, mail and doors to support their candidates in the Detroit media market while saving their TV spending for the less expensive Lansing, Grand Rapids and Traverse City markets.
“The numbers say it all: Democrats have outworked, outraised and out-communicated Republicans at every step of the way,” reads the conclusion of the memo.
House Republicans were significantly outspent across the board, with Democratic incumbents and challengers taking advantage of the online fundraising tool ActBlue to raise millions of dollars from out-of-state contributors.
Wednesday’s developments come after five straight election cycles in which one or two incumbents lost their seats in the general election, but the new change in term limits, allowing incumbents to run for six terms, put 100% of the focus on incumbents defending their seats this cycle.
A MIRS analysis of 20 years prior to the term limits era (1976-1996) found that an average of four incumbents lost their seats in every general election and two lost in the primary. Two already lost in the August primary.
The campaign featured the first cycle since the 1990s in which incumbents were able to run for a fourth term due to the 2022 passage of the term limits reform constitutional amendment. This helped produce just 11 open seats after the primary, none of which were politically competitive.
The focus then shifted to knocking off incumbents, something state House campaigns were apt at doing before the state’s term limits law went into full effect in 1998. From 1976-96, an average of six incumbents would lose to a challenger every election year, according to research conducted by MIRS over the last two days.
Democrats across the board tried to rekindle voter enthusiasm around the abortion issues, which helped win them control of the House in 2022 when Proposal 3 made abortion rights a part of the state constitution. Polling this cycle consistently showed abortion as behind the economy, border security and the future of democracy as voters’ top issue.
Article courtesy MIRS News for SBAM’s Lansing Watchdog newsletter
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