House Speaker Joe Tate (D-Detroit) and House Minority Leader Matt Hall (R-Kalamazoo) are among the 35 House members facing primaries this summer of varying severity.
In all, 18 Republicans and 17 Democrats face opposition from a candidate in their own party, although few appear to be serious challenges. Below, MIRS lists the top 10 incumbents it views as being in the most trouble.
The information below is based on interviews with numerous sources across the political spectrum.
Editor’s Note: SBAM’s Small Biz PAC has endorsed candidates in 65 House of Representative races. Check out our picks.
1. Rep Neil Friske (R-Charlevoix) – If news of last month’s arrest wasn’t enough, West Michigan Politics blogger Brandon Hall had more embarrassing details about Friske’s sexual misadventures. And that might not be the last of it if Lansing prosecutors pull the trigger on criminal charges. Friske’s past allegiance with former Chair Kristina Karamo and the ultra MAGAs had him on the outs with any Lansing money, to the extent he wanted it anyway. Parker Fairbairn got the endorsement of the Michigan Farm Bureau last month, not Friske, whose family has owned an apple orchard for years. Ouch.
2. Rep. Mike McFall (D-Hazel Park) – Had this primary happened 15 years ago, Jim Fouts, Warren’s longest-serving mayor, would have smoked McFall. In 2024? It’s no longer so sure of a bet. Many of those constituents who fondly remember Fouts taking care of them have passed on. Fouts at 81 may not look or act like Joe Biden at 81, but he still has a long history of sexist and racist comments that don’t play in Hazel Park and Madison Heights. McFall is reportedly working very hard and with only half of his district in Warren and Centerline, the incumbent could pick up enough Fouts discontents to pull this off.
3. Rep. Regina Weiss (D-Oak Park) – No longer connected to the House Democrats’ campaign operation, Weiss can focus more of her attention on re-election, which is not a slam dunk. Former Oak Park Schools Trustee Crystal Bailey hired former Sen. Virgil Smith to help her in the Detroit portion of a district completely revamped by the redistricting commission’s redraw. The field reports are that Bailey is working hard and connecting. The new district doesn’t have Birmingham to help out Weiss.
4. Rep. Robert Bezotte (R-Howell) – In a head-to-head against door-knocking machine Dominic Restuccia or the aggressive campaign of Jason Woolford, Bezotte would be No. 1 or 2 on this list. Instead, the anti-Bezotte support is being split three ways with Kristina Lyke also in the fold. That helps the incumbent, regardless of how much support he’s lost from dropping out or from his messy divorce. Word from the district is that Woolford and Restuccia are burying Bezotte in the yard sign war. Woolford has sent out at least five mailers while Bezotte has relied on third-party PACs to help him. But Bezotte’s years of Livingston County service has earned him an automatic 15% base. In a competitive four-way race, he doesn’t need that much more to win.
5. Rep. Cam Cavitt (R-Cheboygan) – The bad news for Cavitt? Todd Smalenberghas been running against him for about a year. The good news for Cavitt? Smalenberg has been running against him for about a year. Cavitt knows what’s coming and he’s been working for about a year to insulate himself. This will be a big test of the strength of Ultra MAGAs in Northern Michigan and whether voters will overlook Smalenberg’s main house being slightly outside the district.
6. Rep. Mai Xiong (D-Warren) -This 13th district doesn’t look anything like the one Xiong won this winter. It’s about 44% Warren, Xiong’s stomping grounds, and 33% percent Roseville, where former Rep. Richard Steenland served in public office for more than three decades. The battleground is a chunk of St. Clair Shores. Will Xiong connect? What kind of work is Steenland putting into it?
7. Rep. Josh Schriver (R-Oxford) – The eccentric Shriver has an aggressive challenge from Randy LeVasseur, who’s won elections before . . . just not in this district. Schriver’s colorful tenure in Lansing has given LeVasseur a lot of material to work with. Reports are that the challenger has money and is working while the incumbent operates with little to no support from any organized PACs. In today’s climate, that may work to Schriver’s advantage. Schriver won his 2022 primary against four other Republicans with 38 percent of the vote.
8. Rep. Matt Maddock (R-Milford) – Maddock is feeling so confident about his re-election odds against a long-time Milford official that he spent the week in Milwaukee at the Republican convention. Kevin Zielger is hitting Maddock hard on his relatively unresponsiveness to local government officials and anyone outside of the MAGA world. Meanwhile, Maddock, who rose to power as a rabble-rouser, is today’s Republican Party. A Trump disciple through and through, Maddock is now getting the endorsements from the Great Lakes Education Project and the DeVos political operation. How things have changed.
9. Rep. Jenn Hill (D-Marquette) – Planned Parenthood, the League of Conservation Voters and the traditional progressive outfits are pulling out the stops to keep the more left-leaning Hill in office. Her liberal voting record and thin U.P. roots make her vulnerable to a long-time pragmatic local official like Randy Girard. The question will be if he’s working harder than Joe Boogren, who lost by 1,100 votes to Hill in 2022. Girard has some signs in Marquette, but Hill is knocking doors and working like someone who wants to stay in office.
10. Rep. Joe Tate (D-Detroit) – The Speaker no longer has the Pointes to lean on with the new Detroit map redraw, which leaves him vulnerable. The good news for him is his chief opponent, Lory Parks, isn’t the most knowledgeable on how to win a competitive state House race. History has shown that political newcomers can come out of nowhere to win Detroit primaries, but Parks doesn’t have someone like Lamar Lemmons behind her.
Names we considered, but opted against:
– Rep. Douglas C. Wozniak (R-Shelby Township) – Yeah, we know this is Woz and he doesn’t lose elections, but Jean Zott is running a strong campaign. She’s knocking doors, attending events, putting big signs in good locations, you know, running a real campaign. So is Woz.
– Rep. Gina Johnsen (R-Lake Odessa) – Johnsen isn’t the ideological stick-in-the-mud many feared she’d be in Lansing, but that’s opened her up to a challenge from MAGA ground floor occupant Jon Rocha. If Johnsen wasn’t such a quality campaigner, we’d have this one higher on the list, but given her impressive electoral history, it’s hard to bet against her.
– Rep. Matt Hall (R-Kalamazoo) – The late-money spend isn’t expected to move the needle. Hall knows what it takes to unseat an incumbent, having done it himself. If he sniffed trouble, we’d all know it.
– Rep. Kimberly Edwards (D-Eastpointe) – Apparently, Lemmons isn’t helping Edwards this year . . . but he’s not helping her opponent either.
– Rep. Cynthia Neeley (D-Flint) – Michael Floyd Clack isn’t his mother or father.
Article courtesy MIRS News for SBAM’s Lansing Watchdog e-newsletter