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By now, we’ve all resigned ourselves to the reality that there are painfully few competitive big races heading into Tuesday’s primary election.
Mike Rogers and U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Holly) will likely be the U.S. Senate nominees. We expect Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) and Paul Junge to advance in MI-8. It’s going to be Carl Marlinga advancing to face U.S. Rep. John James (R-Shelby Township) again in MI-10.
Either Paul Hudson or Michael Markey will win the Republican nomination in MI-3, but since neither has differentiated himself from the other, does it matter all that much?
The drama falls in some interesting subplots across the state, and MIRS is listing them out for you to follow.
1. Is it better to have money or endorsements in Detroit?
You know where this is going. U.S. Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) and his allies have spent more than $6 million in his bid for a second term against Detroit City Councilmember Mary Waters, who had barely spent more than $33,000 on paid media. But she has Mayor Mike Duggan, Wayne County Executive Warren Evans and numerous Black leaders in her corner.
It feels a little like U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Detroit) versus Brenda Jones in 2020. Jones was selling herself as the Black candidate in Detroit against the well-funded, non-Black, first-year incumbent. Tlaib had more of a field organization and not as much money as Thanedar. Still, Tlaib ran a professional campaign. Jones did not. Tlaib won 2:1.
2. Who will get more votes, Sherry O’Donnell or Justin Amash?
This is important for a few reasons. For one, it tests the base level of libertarian sentiment among Michigan Republicans. We say base level because, to be fair, Amash has not run anything close to a winning campaign. Unless you’re on social media, you’ve probably forgotten that he’s even running.
Meanwhile, O’Donnell has become the darling of the grassroots conservatives. She’s showing up everywhere, granting numerous interviews and getting shout-outs from such conservative figures as Trucker Randy Bishop, rocker Ted Nugent and Dave Agema.
Whatever percentage of the vote O’Donnell gets is the ceiling for underfunded, grassroots candidates running statewide in Michigan. And is that support more than whatever residual love Amash has from West Michigan and libertarian Republicans?
And is it more votes than what Sandy Pensler’s $3.3 million on TV will get for him?
3. Can mainstream Republicans take back the party?
Clearly, the answer in the U.S. Senate race is yes, because former President Donald Trump has successfully bridged the gap between “mainstream” and grassroots Republicans. But what about those races where Trump hasn’t gotten involved?
State House races, individually, are won at the local level, but collectively they can paint a picture. What happens in the reelection campaigns of Minority Leader Matt Hall (R-Kalamazoo), Rep. Neil Friske (R-Charlevoix), Rep. Matt Maddock (R-Milford), Rep. Josh Schriver (R-Oxford), Rep. Gina Johnsen (R-Lake Odessa) and Rep. Cam Cavitt (R-Cheboygan), where professional doorknockers are assisting “liberty” candidates.
Also, will big money from the PAC historically connected to Consumers Energy produce mainstream GOP wins in HD-35 or HD-104.
Does Barry County Sheriff Dar Leaf win reelection against a mainstream challenger? How about the Ottawa Impact crew? Or Antrim County Clerk Sheryl Guy?
Kristina Karamo’s ousting as Michigan Republican Party chair shows there is a limit to how deep into the conspiratorial rabbit hole and religious-tainted dogma Republican voters are willing to go. We’ll see if that shows up at the ballot box.
4. Will the new state House redistricting lines eat up some incumbents?
The new state House lines miraculously didn’t put any incumbents into the same district, but at least three incumbents are running within drastically different boundaries against challengers who are giving them a run for their money.
Rep. Regina Weiss (D-Oak Park) (HD-5) is running in a piece of Detroit that Crystal Bailey is trying to lay claim to. Rep. Mai Xiong (D-Warren) (HD-13) is going from representing Detroit to running in Roseville and St. Clair Shores, in the belly of Richard Steenland’s stomping grounds. And Rep. Mike McFall (D-Hazel Park) (HD-14) is running in Warren, where Jim Fouts was mayor for 16 years.
5. What impact will the plight of the Palestinians have on the elections?
U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib, the tip of the spear in terms of pro-Palestinian political activism, isn’t touchable in the primary, but several other candidates endorsed by the American Arab and Muslim Political Action Committee (AMPAC) face competitive races.
Can Rima Mohammad, who sponsored a successful pro-ceasefire resolution at the Ann Arbor Public Schools, succeed in the open 33rd House District against the presumed successor of Rep. Felicia Brabec (D-Ann Arbor)? How about Tlaib-backed Layla Taha against Rep. Peter Herzberg (D-Westland) in a rematch?
Does Aisha Farooqi, a leader of a pro-Palestine rally in Macomb County, win her primary again? Ziad Abdulmalik has been backed by AMPAC, Yemeni American Political Club, Vote For Peace USA and Michigan Community Conversation. He’s challenging Rep. Alabas A. Farhat (D-Dearborn), who got a TV ad from Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan.
Ahmed Ghanim isn’t beating U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), but what percentage of the vote does he get in a one-on-one in a heavily Jewish district?
Article courtesy MIRS News for SBAM’s Lansing Watchdog newsletter
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